供给因素、结构变化、汇率与我国的双边贸易

基于考虑供给因素、结构变化的出口决定模型,采用两方程方法和单方程方法研究了外国GDP、中国GDP、结构变化、汇率与我国17个双边贸易之间的关系。研究表明:供给因素、结构变化对我国双边贸易有重要影响,供给因素对我国与美、澳、马、巴、新、泰、加进口及出口的影响存在严重的不对称性,结构变化对我国与德、印、加进口及出口的影响存在严重的不对称性,汇率对中国对15个贸易伙伴国出口与进口的影响存在严重的不对称性。采用出口除进口表示贸易收支做法的单方程方法的研究存在严重错误。经济增长模式对双边贸易有重要影响,人民币升值对我国双边贸易不平衡有一定的矫正作用,对改善我国双边贸易不平衡的国别分布有较大的积极作用。

Supply Factor, Structural Change, Exchange Rate and China’Bilateral Trade

Based on export models with supply factor and structural change,by single equation method and two-equation method,this paper researches the relationships between foreign GDP,China’s GDP,structural change,RMB’s exchange rate and China’ bilateral trade.The study shows: Supply factor and structural change has important effect on China’s bilateral trade.Supply factor has very asymmetric effect on China’s export to US,Australia,Malaysia,Brazil,Singapore,Thailand,Canada and import from these countries.Structural change has very asymmetric effect on China’s export to Germany,India,Canada and import from these countries.RMB’s exchange rate has very asymmetric effect on China’s fifteen bilateral trade partners.There are serious errors in research by single equation method,in which trade balance is represented as export divided by import.Economic growth pattern has important effect on China’ s bilateral trade.RMB/＄ exchange rate appreciation has limit correction effect on imbalanced China’s bilateral trade and bigger effect on improving the distribution of imbalanced China’s bilateral trade among countries.