石油危机对世界经济周期性波动的影响

本文以1971-2005年的世界油价、世界经济增长率及美国等8个世界主要发达国家经济增长率数据为基础,并利用单方根检验、VAR模型和Granger检验分析了石油价格波动与世界经济周期性波动的关系。结果表明,石油危机或剧烈的价格波动初期与世界经济周期性波动有紧密的关联,加深了世界经济波动的幅度,拉长了世界经济波动的周期,但在滞后期对世界经济周期性波动的影响正逐步减弱,并由最初的异向变动转为同向变动。

Influence of Oil Crisis's on World Economic Cyclic Fluctuation

On the basis of annual data of world oil price, the world economic growth and the economic growth of 8 major countries from 1981 to 2005, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the relationship of oil price, cyclic fluctuation and non-cyclic fluctuation of world economy with unit root test, co-integration test and Granger causality test. Results show that price fluctuation of oil deepens the amplitude, elongates the period of world economy, and has a lessened influence on world business cycle with a completely different model from the quondam one.