| 中日韩FTA的潜在经济影响研究——基于动态递归式CGE模型的研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵金龙,程轩,高钟焕.中日韩FTA的潜在经济影响研究——基于动态递归式CGE模型的研究[J].国际贸易问题,2013(2):58-67. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵金龙 程轩 高钟焕 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海大学经济学院;韩国釜庆大学区域经济学系 |
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| 基金项目： | 韩国人力资源部BK21专项基金;上海市教委科研创新项目(课题号:10Y224)的资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 区域性FTA已经成为世界贸易自由化的新趋势,中韩日FTA的构建对于3国经济融合将产生巨大的推动作用。本文首先回顾了中日韩FTA的相关研究与谈判进程;然后分析了中日韩3国的贸易结构、特征与趋势;最后,结合FTA资本聚集效应,按时间序列构建动态递归式一般均衡模型,分析了中日韩FTA对3国国内生产总值、福利(EV)、外贸进出口、贸易条件等产生的各种潜在经济影响。
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| 关 键 词： | 中日韩FTA CGE模型 动态影响 |
Korea FTA Potential Economic Impact Study——Based on Dynamic Recursive Model Based on CGE |
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| ZHAO Jin-long,CHEN xuan GAO Zhong-huan.Korea FTA Potential Economic Impact Study——Based on Dynamic Recursive Model Based on CGE[J].Journal of International Trade,2013(2):58-67. |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Jin-long CHEN xuan GAO Zhong-huan |
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| Institution: | ZHAO Jin-long CHEN xuan GAO Zhong-huan |
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| Abstract: | Regional FTA has become a new trend of world trade liberalization.The establishment of CJK FTA would have a great impetus on economic integration among China,Japan and South Korea.This paper first reviews the relevant researches and negotiations of CJK FTA,and then analyzes the trade structures,characteristics and trends among the three countries.Finally,from a long-term dynamic perspective,combined with FTA capital accumulation effect,recursive dynamic CGE models are constructed to analyze variant potential economic impact of CJK FTA on the three countries’GDP,welfare,import and export and terms of trade by time series. |
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| Keywords: | CJK FTA CGE Models Dynamic Impact |
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