人民币实际汇率与贸易条件的实证研究

基于均衡汇率理论,应用协整模型,采用真实变量分析了1980-2003年的人民币实际汇率及其与均衡汇率的失调情况,进而研究了不同时期人民币实际汇率与贸易条件的关系。结果表明:贸易条件与中长期以及短期的实际汇率存在显著的关系,贸易条件的恶化或改善是导致人民币实际汇率升值或贬值的重要原因之一。并且,在不同的发展时期,贸易条件对实际汇率的影响呈现出不同的特点。

An Empirical Analysis on RMB Real Exchange Rate and Terms of Trade

Based on the theories of equilibrium exchange rate and used real economic fundamentals, this paper estimates RMB's real equilibrium exchange rate, analyses RMB's misalignment through cointegration model and the relations between RMB's real exchange rate and terms of trade in different periods in China from 1980 to 2002. The amelioration or deterioration of terms of trade is one of the main reasons which would lead to overvaluation or undervaluation of RMB's real exchange rate. But in different development periods of China, terms of trade have different influences on RMB's real exchange rate.