突发公共事件对电影行业影响的量化研究

人工收集和整理2012—2018年在中国市场上映的首轮院线电影信息数据，构建电影需求的嵌套logit回归模型，以新冠肺炎疫情为准自然实验，来量化突发公共事件对电影行业复产复工的影响。结果显示：第一，关于上映时间选择，在恢复营业后，如果所有因为疫情尚未上映的电影选择顺延上映能有效避免过度竞争的局面。第二，关于上映节奏控制，控制好未定档电影的上映节奏，保持适当的竞争能促进经济效益提升。其中，从11月份开始以每周两部的频率上映未定档电影的经济效益最佳。第三，关于上映方式选择，与线下播放相比，疫情期间选择线上播放能及时收回成本并有利于经济收益最大化的实现。研究结论为电影行业制定复产复工策略提供依据，为未来应对突发公共卫生事件提供参考。

Quantitative Study of the Public Emergency on the Movie Industry

We estimate a demand model using data of the first run theoretical movies in China from 2012 to 2018. Using the COVID-19 epidemic as a quasi-natural experiment, we quantify the impact of public emergencies on the movie industry. The results show:First, the release time of movies is critical to the performance of movies. After the resumption of business, if all movies that have not been released due to the epidemic choose to postpone the release, it can effectively avoid the situation of excessive competition. Second, controlling the release rhythm of unfixed movies and maintaining appropriate competition can promote the improvement of economic benefits. Our results show that the rhythm of two movies per week after November 2020 maximizes the economic returns. Third, an alternative for the movie producers in response to the shutdown of theater is to use online platforms. The results provide a basis for the movie industry to formulate strategies for resuming production and work, and provide a reference for future response to public health emergencies.