高管过度自信、过度悲观与股利羊群行为研究

以股改后的2007-2011年A股上市公司为研究样本，考察高管过度自信、过度悲观的非理性行为与股利羊群行为之间的关系。结果发现：存在过度自信和过度悲观心理行为高管的上市公司发生股利羊群行为的可能性较小，而存在适度理性高管的上市公司发生股利羊群行为的可能性较大。进一步对不同产权性质下二者的关系进行分析发现，与国有上市公司相比，非国有上市公司中高管过度自信与过度悲观对公司股利羊群行为的影响更为显著，而适度理性的高管却总是倾向于股利羊群行为。股利羊群行为是上市公司高管的理性选择。

Executives Overconfidence, Over-Pessimism and Dividend Herd Behavior

Based on the data of Chinese A-share listed companies during 2007-2011, this paper investigates the relationship between executives overconfidence, over-pessimism and herd behavior of the Cash Dividends Policy. The results show that: there is significant relationship between executives overconfidence, over-pessimism and herd behavior of cash dividend payout level. The dividend herd behavior is less likely to occur in listed companies of existing overconfident executives and over-pessimistic executives, but occurs more frequently in listed companies with moderate rational executives. Moreover, we find that the negative correlation between executives overconfidence, over-pessimism and dividend herd behavior is significant in non-state controlled listed companies, but the positive correlation between executives moderate rational behavior and dividend herd behavior is always significant, which implies dividend herd behavior is a rational choice of executives in listed companies.