旅游发展对城市工业化的影响及其差异性研究——以58个旅游城市为例

文章构建了旅游业发展影响工业化的理论模型，并利用2000—2016年中国58个旅游城市面板数据和动态面板模型，从总体、专业化、规模和区域等多维度，分析检验了旅游业发展对城市工业化的影响及差异性。结果表明：无论是宏观层面，还是三种分类检验，旅游业发展对城市工业化都具有负向效应。当前，中国旅游城市存在一定的“旅游诅咒”效应，阻滞了其工业化深化；分专业化研究可知，旅游业发展对工业化的负向作用，由大到小依次为旅游高专业化、低专业化和半专业化城市；分规模研究发现，中型旅游城市的最显著，小型旅游城市次之，而大型旅游城市最不显著；分区域研究表明，中西部旅游城市的较突出，而东部旅游城市统计上并不显著。这为各个旅游城市采取有效措施及时防范和规避“旅游诅咒”效应和正确处理“旅游业+工业化”关系提供了参考依据。

Impact and Its Difference of Tourism Expansion on Urban Industrialization——Based on Data from 58 Tourist Cities in China

This paper constructed the theory model of the impact of tourism expansion on the industrialization, and analyzed the influence of the tourism expansion to the industrialization by using dynamic panel method based on the panel data from 58 tourist cities in China from 2000 to 2014 from macroscopic and specialized dimensions and considered different scales and regions. The results are as follows: on the macro level and in three test categories tourism expansion had negative effect on industrialization. Currently, there is “travel curse” effect in China's tourist cities, which blocks the deepening of its industrialization. According to the specialization study, the negative effect of tourism expansion on industrialization, from big to small, was the tourism of high specialization, low specialization and semi-specialization. The scale study found that the tourism expansion of medium-sized tourist cities had the most significant negative effect on industrialization, while the small tourist cities were the second, and the large tourist cities were the least significant. The region study showed that the impact in the tourist cities of the central and west regions was the comparatively prominent; while in the tourist cities of the eastern region it was not statistically significant. This provides reference for tourist cities to take effective measures to prevent the “travel curse” effect and to properly handle tourism and industrial relations.