城市生活垃圾的解耦分析——来自空间计量模型的新证据

文章旨在从垃圾产生源头考察经济增长与城市生活垃圾产生量的动态关系,以此判定解耦状态。基于2004—2016年中国31个省级行政区的面板数据,运用空间杜宾模型对城市人均生活垃圾产生量与居民消费水平进行解耦分析。纳入空间因素后,城市人均生活垃圾产生量与城镇居民消费水平之间的“倒N形”曲线关系更加显著和稳健,并呈现出相对解耦,但尚未达到绝对解耦。更为重要的是,考虑空间因素之后,城市人均生活垃圾产生量的预测峰值将会推迟到来。在未来30年里,城市人均生活垃圾产生量还将持续增加,如何提升资源使用效率,实现经济发展与生活垃圾产生量的绝对解耦将是政策当局必须充分考虑的重大议题。

Decoupling Analysis of Municipal Solid Waste Generation and Consumption of Urban Residents:New Evidence from Spatial Econometrical Models

This paper aims to investigate the dynamic relationship between economic activity and municipal solid waste (MSW) generation from the source, so as to ascertain whether decoupling is occurring or not. Based on a panel data of 31 Chinese provinces during the period between 2004 and 2016, the dynamic relationship between MSW generation per capita and urban residents' consumption was analyzed by employing the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM). After spatial factors are incorporated, results show that there is even more significant and steady inverted “N” shaped WKC curve between them, and there appears relative decoupling, though not absolute decoupling. More importantly, the predicted peak of MSW generation per capita will be delayed after considering the spatial effects. MSW generation per capita will continue to increase in the coming 30 years. How to improve the efficiency of resource, so as to realize the absolute decoupling of economic development and MSW generation is a major issue that the policy authorities must consider fully.