对外贸易与经济增长关系的实证分析--以山东省为例

对外贸易对经济增长的促进作用因不同的经济条件而有所不同。运用协整理论和误差修正模型，对山东省经济增长与对外贸易的相关性和因果关系进行实证检验的结果表明，山东省经济增长与出口和进口之间存在着长期的稳定关系，无论在短期内还是长期内，三个变量两两之间都具有显著的双向格兰杰因果关系，因此应继续坚定出口导向型的外向发展战略。

The Study of the Relationship between Foreign Trade and Economic Growth--Take Shandong province for Example

Foreign trade has different impetus to economic growth under different economic environments. Using cointegration theory and error correction model, this paper makes positive test to the correlation and causality between the economic growth and foreign trade of Shandong province. The result shows that there is long and stable relationship among the economic growth, export and import of Shandong province. No matter in long term and in short term, there is remarkable causality among the three variables. So the export-oriented development stratagies should be followed continuously.