Anticipatory effects of voluntary export restraints: a study of home video cassette recorders market, 1978-86

This paper investigates the impact of voluntary export restraints (VERs) at the pre-implementation stage when exporters have a good prospect for the VERs. Distinctive features of the VCR market in 1978-86 provide a testable hypothesis to analyze the effect of the EC-Japan VERs, which were implemented in the fiscal years of 1983-85. The paper finds consistent evidence that the VERs affected firms’ pricing behavior in the U.S. market prior to the VER period, as a result of Japanese exporters’ anticipation of the VERs.