西北地区上市公司财务危机预警模型问题研究

西北地区作为民族聚居区,其战略地位日益显现,但本地区股票市场发展的规模、水平与其地位很不相称。目前制约其发展突出的问题是缺乏定量分析,为此采集和选取了近几年西北地区76家上市公司核心财务指标,以Logistic模型为基础,建立财务预警模型,并对影响公司预亏的核心指标从经济学和财务学的角度给出了降低公司来年预亏可能性的指导性建议。为了克服部分指标间的相关性对分析结果的影响,并使预警模型更趋合理,又进一步以公司预亏前两年各指标的综合值为基础,建立了以显著的主成分指标为回归变量的财务预警的Logistic模型,以期为本区上市公司提供一种及早发现、预防、分散和化解财务风险的参考依据,并为投资者提供较为合理的投资预期分析工具。

The Finance Alarm Model for Northwestern Listed Companies

The strategic position of the Northwest in China has become more and more important for being the inhabited area of diversified nationalities.However,the local stock scale and management cannot match the actual position.Therefore,it is extremely important at present to perform some quantitative analyses on stock markets for this area.By sampling 12 important financial indixes of 76 listed companies in the Northwest,the paper chooses two kinds of logistic warning models in different cases:one can be used to select the important indexes and provide some guidances for the companies to reduce the probability of potential deficits in the following year;the other can be used as a financial warning model to avoid financial risk for the listed companies and an analytical tool for investors.