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基于遗传算法优化混沌神经网络的股票指数预测
引用本文:马明,李松.基于遗传算法优化混沌神经网络的股票指数预测[J].商业研究,2010(11).
作者姓名:马明  李松
作者单位:1. 北京大学,经济学院,北京,100871
2. 河北大学,管理学院,河北,保定,071002
基金项目:河北省社科基金资助项目;项目 
摘    要:为提高BP神经网络预测模型对混沌时间序列的预测准确性,提出一种基于遗传算法优化BP神经网络的改进混沌时间序列预测方法。本文采用时间序列输入输出参数数量构造BP神经网络拓扑结构,利用遗传算法优化BP神经网络的权值和阈值,然后训练BP神经网络预测模型求得最优解,将该预测方法应用到上证综合指数的时间序列进行有效性验证,结果表明了该方法对上证综合指数具有更好的非线性拟合能力和更高的预测准确性。

关 键 词:股指预测  混沌理论  BP神经网络  遗传算法

The Prediction of Stock Index Based on Genetic Algorithm Optimized Chaotic Neural Network
MA Ming,LI Song.The Prediction of Stock Index Based on Genetic Algorithm Optimized Chaotic Neural Network[J].Commercial Research,2010(11).
Authors:MA Ming  LI Song
Institution:MA Ming1,LI Song2 ( 1. School of Economics,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China,2. School of Management,Hebei University,Baoding 071002,China)
Abstract:In order to improve forecasting model accuracy of BP neural network for chaotic time series,an improved prediction method for chaotic time series of optimized BP neural network based on genetic algorithm ( GA) was presented. In this method,the BP neural network topology was constructed by the number of input and output of time series. The GA was used to optimize the weights and thresholds of BP neural network,and then BP neural network was trained to search for the optimal solution. The availability of the ...
Keywords:stock index prediction  chaotic theory  BP neural network  genetic algorithm  
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