人民币汇率水平合理性的实证分析

1994年第一季度至2006年第一季度的人民币名义汇率及其决定因素来建立一个VAR行为均衡汇率模型。实证结果发现,在样本期内,人民币名义汇率失调的幅度始终在3%以内,这给出了人民币汇率水平合理性的一种理论解释。实证分析还表明,2005年7月人民币汇率制度改革的时机是恰当的,升值的幅度是适宜的,升值的方向是正确的,未来一段时期内人民币的升值应继续按照"渐进、微调"的原则。

The Empirical Analysis of the Appropriate Level of Renminbi ( RMB ) Exchange Rate

The paper gives a VAR model of behavioral equilibrium exchange rate between Renminbi(RMB) nominal exchange rate and its determinate factors during the period 1994 and 2006 in seasonal data.The evidence shows that the misalignment of Renminbi's nominal exchange rate was less than 3% during the period,which gives a theoretical explanation to the appropriate level of Renminbi Exchange rate.The empirical analysis also shows that the exchange rate reform and appreciation in July 2005 was reasonable not only in time,the range of appreciation,but also the direction.With the model,the future appreciation of Renminbi should be realized chronic ally and by small percentage.