中国自贸区的经济增长效应评估--基于沪津闽粤自贸区的实证研究

为考察中国自贸区对地区经济增长的效应,结合1995~2018年省级面板数据,采用双重差分法实证评估了自贸区带来的经济增长效应,并在此基础上进一步用合成控制法检验了自贸区经济增长效应的地区异质性,研究发现:第一,自贸区对区域经济增长具有显著持续的推动作用,且设立时间越久,推动作用逐渐增强;第二,影响机制检验结果表明,自贸区主要是通过扩大贸易水平和吸引外商投资的方式促进经济增长,通过产业结构优化升级的途径还未得以充分发挥;第三,自贸区经济增长效应存在地区异质性,上海、广东、福建的自贸区对地区经济增长推动作用显著,天津自贸区的经济增长效应相对不明显。

The Effect of FTZs on Economic Growth in China:An Empirical Research Based on the FTZs in Shanghai,Tianjin,Fujian and Guangdong

This paper aims to study the effect of free trade zones on regional economic growth.With provincial panel data from 1995 to 2018,the differences in differences(DID)method is used to evaluate the economic growth effect arising from the establishment of free trade zones.The synthetic control method is further used to test the regional heterogeneity of the economic growth effect in the free trade zones.The research results indicate that:first,free trade zones promote the regional economic development significantly and continuously,and the role in promoting is gradually enhanced with the longer time of establishment;second,the test results of the influence mechanism indicate that free trade zones mainly promote economic development by means of trade expansion and foreign investment attraction,and the way to promote economic growth through the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure has not been brought into full play;third,regional heterogeneity exists in the economic growth effect of free trade zones.Free Trade Zones in Shanghai,Guangdong and Fujian play a significant role in promoting regional economic growth;however,the economic growth effect of Tianjin Free Trade Zone is not obvious.