资产价格、通货膨胀与货币政策的动态分析:理论与中国实践

传统的CPI和GDP平减指数仅仅涵盖了普通商品和服务,股票和房地产等资产价格上涨的因素并不包括在内。随着现代金融的不断深化,通货膨胀与资产价格的内在关系越来越被人们所关注。虽然刚刚经历了2008年的金融危机,2009年房地产价格仍然不断快速上涨,有关泡沫的言论不断升温。探寻资产价格变化与通货膨胀预期的内在关系,完善货币政策对于资产价格的反应机制,对于维护经济金融的平稳发展意义重大。

Dynamic Analysis on Asset Price,Inflation and Monetary Policy:Theory and the Practice in China

With constant deepening of modern finance,people pay more and more attention on the internal relation between inflation and asset price. Through Granger causality test and VAR model,this paper finds there is an inherent correlation between asset price and inflation,and the positive impulse of asset price growth has a positive impact on inflation later;Also,we found the obvious positive effects of currency amount growth on stock and real estate,while the negative effects of interest rate on the real estate market is greater than that on stock market.Overall,monetary policy has large space in regulating asset price growth.