中国通货膨胀影响因素的实证分析——基于VAR模型的研究

通货膨胀已经影响到我国经济的稳健发展,文章对2003年1月至2011年3月间的我国外汇储备、狭义货币供应量、准货币与CPI四个指标进行了实证分析,旨在找到影响我国通货膨胀的因素。首先进行ADF检验,然后建立VAR向量自回归模型并进行协整检验,从而得出以下结论:外汇储备、狭义货币供应量、准货币与CPI之间存在长期的均衡关系,其中准货币增长对通货膨胀起反方向作用。据此,对抑制我国通货膨胀和保持经济平稳发展提出政策建议。

Empirical Analysis on What Influences China＇s Inflation——based on the usage of VAR model

It is inflation that has greatly affected China's stable economic development.This article aims to find out what influences China's inflation to such a great extent,by analyzing the four indexes(GDP,CPI,GNP,PPI),quasi-money,narrowly defined money supply,domestic foreign exchange reserves from January,2003 to March,2011.Finally,it focuses more on the policies and measures as regards bringing down the inflation and maintain steady economic development.