| 基于VAR模型的中国出口导向经济增长假说检验 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄新飞,张娜.基于VAR模型的中国出口导向经济增长假说检验[J].财贸研究,2008,19(2):55-62. |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄新飞 张娜 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中山大学,国际商学院,广东,广州,510275
2. 广东省建设银行,越秀支行,广东,广州,510120 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金，中山大学985工程产业与区域发展研究哲学社会科学创新基地项目，中山大学桐山基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 由于数据结构、计量方法和变量选择的不同,有关ELG(出口导向型增长)假说的研究得出了不同的结论。系统分析FDI、出口贸易和经济增长的关系,将FDI纳入VAR模型中检验ELG假说,结果发现:中国是出口导向型经济增长,每增长1%的出口贸易开放度引发长期经济增长0.83%,出口贸易开放度是影响中国经济增长波动的主要因素,它对经济增长具有递增的促进作用;FDI具有持续提高中国出口贸易度的效应,从而促进中国的长期经济增长,FDI是引发中国出口贸易度提高和经济增长的Granger原因。
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| 关 键 词： | FDI ELG假说 VAR模型 协整分析 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-6260(2008)02-0055-08 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007年12月6日 |
Test of the Hypothesis of Export-Led Growth in China Based on VAR Model |
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| HUANG Xin-fei,ZHANG Na.Test of the Hypothesis of Export-Led Growth in China Based on VAR Model[J].Finance and Trade Research,2008,19(2):55-62. |
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| Authors: | HUANG Xin-fei ZHANG Na |
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| Abstract: | Analysis of the hypothesis of ELG(Export-led Growth)gets different conclusions because of different data structure,econometric method and variables.This paper makes a systematic analysis of the relations between FDI,exports and economic growth.It tests the hypothesis of ELG with VAR model which includes FDI.The conclusion is that China is a country of export led economic growth.It shows that economic growth increases 0.83% when the openness of export trade rises 1%.It is a major factor that fluctuates China's economic growth.Finally,FDI can increase China's export openness constantly and improve economic growth in the long run.FDI is the cause of Granger leading to China export trade openness and economic growth. |
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| Keywords: | FDI hypothesis of ELG VAR model co-integrate analysis |
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