美国参与东亚区域合作对中国的影响研究

在亚太框架下的贸易自由化一直进展缓慢,直到最近,亚太的经济合作才出现实质性的进展。特别是美国不仅与东盟10国签订了贸易和投资框架协议,还与韩国、澳大利亚开始贸易自由协定的谈判,美国对东亚区域合作的参与度越来越高。对于中国而言,美国参与东亚的贸易自由化进程对其会有什么样的影响,是值得密切关注的。文章基于GTAP模型对美国参与东亚区域合作的路径进行模拟,并基于模拟结果分析其对中国的影响。结果表明,中国不参与东亚区域合作是弊大于利,而参与则是利大于弊。中国需要注意的问题:一是积极参与东亚区域合作是最优策略;二是要注意美国的扼制策略,积极加强自由贸易区建设。

The Impacts of American Joining the East Asian Regional Co-operation on China

Trade liberalization in the framework of Asia-Pacific cooperation has been developed slowly, but the cooperation recently makes a great progress. America has signed the Trade and Invest Framework Agreement with ASEAN, and also began the negotiation of Free Trade Agreement with Korea and Australia. America has been closer to East Asia. What are the effects of America′s action on China? This article simulates the ways of America joining the cooperation with East Asia, and gets some results based on the GTAP model. We find that China will gain more than loss if she joins the regional cooperation, and that it is the most perfect strategy for China. On the other side, American strategy may affect the China's cooperation with other countries, so China should accelerate the negotiation of FTA with other countries.