家庭债务的变动与居民消费的过度敏感性:来自中国的证据

通过引入家庭债务变量对LC-PIH模型进行扩展,并运用动态最小二乘(DOLS)方法、误差修正模型、暂时性—持久性因子分解和脉冲响应进行实证分析,结果表明:家庭债务、收入和财富的持久性变动对消费存在显著的促进效应,收入的持久性变动影响最大,其后依次为财富和家庭债务;不同于传统分析框架的结论,不但财富的持久性变动会影响消费,其暂时性变动也会影响消费,但收入的暂时性变动对消费的影响并不显著;在家庭债务和财富的持久性和暂时性变动共同作用下,消费变动更为剧烈。因此,政策当局一方面要稳步提升居民预期收入水平,完善消费信贷的相关政策,以推动消费的稳步增长;另一方面还应密切关注家庭负债水平,以防范家庭过度负债而可能引发的债务收缩,导致消费的大幅下滑。

Household Debt Change and Excessive Sensitivity of Residents Consumption: Evidence from China

This paper makes an empirical analysis by introducing household debt variable to LC-PIH model,and using dynamic least squares (DOLS) method,error correction model,temporary-persistent factorization and pulse response. Persistent change of family debt,income and wealth significantly promotes consumption. Persistent changes of income is the largest,while wealth and family debt take the second place; Different from traditional analysis,wealth persistent change affects consumption,and temporary change affects consumer spending,but income temporary change on consumption influence is not significant. Under common action of persistent and temporary changes of family debt and wealth,consumption shows excessive sensitivity. Residents' expected income should be steadily improved and consumption credit policies be perfected to promote steady growth of consumption,and closely attention should be paid to household debt level to alert family excessive liabilities and to avoid a sharp slow down of consumption.