中国的产出缺口与通货膨胀

本文应用HP滤波方法估算了我国的潜在产出与产出缺口,并通过基于向量自回归模型的格兰杰因果关系检验实证分析了产出缺口与通货膨胀率的关系。结果显示,1994年以来我国通货膨胀预期不是适应性的,而是围绕着一个固定值波动,也就是说,我国存在着传统型的菲利普斯曲线。根据以上结论,本文给出了针对当前经济形势的政策建议。

China's Output Gap and Inflation

This paper presents a theoretical framework of the relationship between output gap and inflation rate. It also estimates China's potential output and output gap with the Hodrick and Prescott filtering, and then em-pirically analyzes the relationship between output gap and inflation rate by Granger Causality Test based on Vector Auto Regression Model. Result shows that from 1994 the inflation rates in China are not fit to the expectation, but fluctuate around a fixed number, in another word, there is traditional Phillips Curve in China from 1994. According to the above conclusion, some policies and proposals are proposed for the current economic situation.