中国股票市场发展与货币需求实证研究

股票市场通过财富效应、风险分散效应、交易效应和替代效应等多种渠道影响货币需求,不同效应的影响方向是不同的。本文实证检验了我国股票市场对货币需求的综合效应,结果表明,股票市场的发展倾向于减少狭义和广义的货币需求,且对广义货币需求的影响小于对狭义货币需求的影响,原因可能在于证券保证金纳入广义货币统计口径后,提高了广义货币需求的稳定性。因此,货币政策既要注意货币需求总量的变化,更要关注货币需求的结构变化,利用选择性货币政策工具来防止股市泡沫膨胀。

An Empirical Study of Stock Market Development and Monetary Demand in China

According to Friedman's analysis, stock market affects monetary demand from four perspectives: wealth, riskspreading, transaction and substitution, with different effects in different directions. The writer of this paper conducts a test on the net effects of stock market on monetary demand, and the results shows that the increase of negotiable capitalization is likely to reduce the monetary demands in both M 1 and M 2, except that the effect on M 2 is less than that on M 1. Part of the effect difference on M 1 and M 2 is because of the fact that the security deposit has been taken into statistics of M 2, which increases the stability of the demand for M 2. Therefore, in making monetary policies, close attention should be paid to the quantity as well as the structure of the monetary demand, and selective monetary instruments should be made use of to curb the stock bubbles.