入世对中国农业发展影响的事后评估——基于GTAP模型的实证分析

基于GTAP模型,设计了相应的模拟方案,事后模拟评估了不入世对中国农业发展带来的影响。结果显示:如果中国当初未加入WTO,中国的国民经济发展水平和福利水平将显著下降,而对世界其他地区的国民经济发展水平和福利水平影响很小;中国大多数农产品的生产、消费和价格都会下降;在分类农产品贸易上,奶类、油料和油脂这些中国具有比较劣势的农产品进口量将大幅度减少,而蔬菜水果和水产品这些中国具有较强国际竞争力的农产品出口量将明显萎缩。

Counterfactual Simulation of Impact of China's Accession to the WTO on Agricultural Development:Based on GTAP Model

Based on Global Trade Analysis Project(GTAP) model,this paper makes a study of counterfactual simulation of impact of China's accession to the WTO on agricultural development.If China had not chosen to join the WTO,the empirical simulation shows that:The level of China's national economic development,import,export trade and welfare will be significantly decreased,but the influence is very small to the rest of the world;The majority of domestic agricultural production,consumption and price will decline,and it will affect the agricultural planting structure;In the categories of agricultural trade,the import of milk and oil which China has a comparative disadvantage will decrease obviously,while the export of fruits,vegetables and aquatic products which China has a strong international competitiveness will substantially reduced.