贸易条件、技术进步与发展战略选择

本文在Cypher&Dietz(1998)模型的基础上进一步讨论了存在贸易的技术进步效应时,发展中国家贸易条件恶化的经济增长效应。我们分析的结论是,在出口部门存在很强的技术进步效应时,贸易条件恶化不会引发“贫困化增长”,Cypher&Dietz(1998)的结论只是在不存在技术进步效应或该效应很小时才成立。由初期比较优势决定的自由贸易模式即使最终会引发“贫困化增长”,但存在一个时间过程,在此之前贸易仍能促进经济的发展,因此最适合的发展战略应为“动态比较优势战略”。

Trade Terms, Technological Progress and Development Strategy

On the basis of Cypher&Dietz (1998) Model, this paper has made a further discussion about the economic growth effect of trade in the LDCs. Our analysis concludes that the deterioration of trade terms won' t cause "Immiserizing Growth" if the technological progress effect of international trade is prominent enough, Cypher&Dietz's conclusion(1998) goes through only if there's no technological progress effect or a subtle one. Even though "Immiserizing Growth" occurs under the free trade pattern, it will take a time course, before which trade can still benefit the economy. The optimal development strategy should be "Dynamic Comparative Advantage Strategy".