| 人民币外汇市场压力指数变动及压力释放效果研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 万超,靳玉英.人民币外汇市场压力指数变动及压力释放效果研究[J].财贸研究,2010,21(2):82-88. |
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| 作者姓名： | 万超 靳玉英 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海财经大学国际工商管理学院,上海,200433;上海财经大学国际工商管理学院,上海,200433 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社会科学基金青年项目“经济全球化下金融危机国际传染性及对中国的政策含义研究”(批准号:05CJL023);;国家自然科学基金项目“汇率行为的复杂性研究”(批准号:70471082);;国家建设高水平大学公派研究生项目(留金出[2008]3019) |
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| 摘 要： | 根据汇率变动的压力来源,引入包括名义汇率、外汇储备、国际利差、通胀水平差、远期升贴水、双边贸易差额等在内的六个因素构建外汇市场压力指数,综合分析2000年1月至2008年6月人民币汇率变动的压力来源。结果显示:人民币的升值压力除了在汇改之初小幅下降外,在其他考察时间段内基本都表现出明显的升值趋势,且各个阶段的汇率走势和压力源贡献分解也体现出差异化的特点。
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| 关 键 词： | 人民币汇率 外汇市场压力指数 压力分解 压力释放效果 |
Exchange Market Pressure Index Change and Appreciation Pressure Release of RMB |
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| WAN Chao JIN Yu-ying.Exchange Market Pressure Index Change and Appreciation Pressure Release of RMB[J].Finance and Trade Research,2010,21(2):82-88. |
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| Authors: | WAN Chao JIN Yu-ying |
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| Institution: | School of International Business Administration;Shanghai University of Finance and Economics;Shanghai 200433 |
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| Abstract: | This paper constructs an exchange market pressure index with six resources leading to the change of exchange rate:nominal exchange rate,foreign reserves,international interest rate spread,inflation difference,forward premium (discount) and bilateral trade balance.By analyzing RMB exchange rate behavior between January in 2000 and June in 2008,this paper shows that except for a slight decline shortly after the exchange rate reform,remarkable appreciation trend is revealed in the other periods,with exchange r... |
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| Keywords: | RMB exchange rate exchange market pressure (EMP) pressure decomposition effects of pressure release |
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