| 重新审视加工贸易在我国经济增长中的作用 |
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| 引用本文： | 周月波,Fadi Alammar.重新审视加工贸易在我国经济增长中的作用[J].北方经贸,2007(2):15-18. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周月波 Fadi Alammar |
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| 作者单位： | 华南农业大学,经济管理学院,广东,广州,510642 |
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| 摘 要： | 随着我国经济结构的优化和比较优势的逐步转变,许多学者开始质疑加工贸易在我国经济中的积极作用。文章运用可变参数模型、协整分析和Granger因果检验考察了加工贸易在我国经济中的动态影响,加工贸易顺差与我国GDP之间的关系。结果显示加工贸易对我国经济的推动作用不断增强;加工贸易顺差与我国GDP之间存在着稳定的均衡关系,加工贸易顺差每增长1%将会拉动GDP增长0.43%,而且二者互为因果关系,相互推动。因此,加工贸易在我国经济中的积极作用仍然不容忽视,我国应该继续发展加工贸易。
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| 关 键 词： | 加工贸易 经济增长 变参数模型 协整检验 Granger因果检验 |
| 文章编号： | 1005-913X（2007）02-0015-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-12-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-12-04 |
RECONSIDERING THE ROLE OF PROCESSING TRADE IN ECONOMICAL GROWTH IN CHINA |
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| ZHOU Yue-bo,Fadi Alammar.RECONSIDERING THE ROLE OF PROCESSING TRADE IN ECONOMICAL GROWTH IN CHINA[J].Northern Economy and Trade,2007(2):15-18. |
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| Authors: | ZHOU Yue-bo Fadi Alammar |
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| Institution: | College of Economics and Management of South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou China 510642 |
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| Abstract: | With the change of economical structure and comparative advantage, many scholars begin to doubt the role of processing trade in economical growth in China. This paper analyzes the dynamic influence of processing trade with a time - varying parameter model, and find out processing trade plays a more and more strong role in economic growth. Meanwhile, there exists a cointegrated relationship between the surplus of processing trade and GDP. Granger Causality Test shows there also ex- ists a two - way cause - effect relationship between the surplus of processing trade and GDP. So, it is necessary to continue to develop processing trade in China. |
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| Keywords: | processing trade economic growth time - varying parameter model cointergration test Granger Causality Test |
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