基于市场预期行为的货币政策透明度检验

通过考察金融市场参与者的行为变化或分析市场利率在政策公告后的变化趋势,可以间接对货币政策透明度进行度量;利用相应的货币政策透明度检验模型和我国金融市场的利率数据进行检验,可知我国中央银行在基准利率调整和准备金率改变等重大的政策决策上,货币当局更倾向于采用模糊的政策操作方式,由此会导致市场预期的混乱,并最终对政策实施效果产生负面影响,因此,我国有必要借鉴西方国家的政策操作经验,进一步增加政策操作方面的透明度,并借以最终建立一个简单透明、效率更高的政策调控框架。

Empirical Testing of Monetary Policy Transparency Based on Behavior of Market Expectation

Monetary policy transparency could be measured by analyzing the reactions and behavior change of market participants after policy announcement.On the basis of the above,monetary policy transparency is tested empirically by using financial data in China in this paper.The result shows that central bank of China becomes more and more transparent in recent years.But in some aspects such as the change of interest rate and ratio of reserve requirement,central bank of China is inclined to be opaque,and for this reason,the market expectation is misguided and there is a negative effect on monetary policy implementation.So it is necessary to increase policy transparency and establish a more transparent framework of monetary policy implementation in the future.