中国省际区域收入趋同实证研究

本文运用绝对β趋同、σ趋同与收入动态分布方法,对1952-2008年的中国省际区域收入趋同进行实证分析。研究结果发现,改革开放前存在绝对β趋同,改革开放后则不存在;σ趋同变动具有阶段性特征,改革开放后的σ趋同分为三个阶段,即1990年前的趋同阶段、1990-2003年间的趋异阶段以及2003年以后的趋同阶段;核密度估计也显示趋同具有阶段性,并存在显著的俱乐部趋同。

Empirical Study on the Regional Income Convergence Across Provinces in China

The paper uses absolute β convergence,σ convergence and distribution dynamics methods to analyze the regional income convergence across provinces in China form 1952 to 2008.The conclusions are as follows: the absolute β convergence exists before reform and opening up,but does not exist after that. The change of σ convergence has significant periodic characteristics,which has three stages after 1978: the convergence stage before 1990,the divergence stage from 1990 to 2003,and the convergence stage after 2003.The kernel density estimation shows the periodic characteristics and club convergence.