| "全面二孩"、人口年龄结构变动与长期经济发展:2017～2050 |
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| 引用本文： | 顾和军,曹玉霞,李青."全面二孩"、人口年龄结构变动与长期经济发展:2017～2050[J].财经论丛,2018(4):3-9. |
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| 作者姓名： | 顾和军 曹玉霞 李青 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京信息工程大学商学院,江苏 南京,210044 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目，国家社会科学基金资助项目，博士后特别基金资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文实证分析"全面二孩"政策的实施对人口年龄结构的影响及由此带来的经济发展水平和增长速度的影响.研究结果表明,"全面二孩"政策的实施使少儿抚养比显著提高,劳动年龄人口占比不会上升,老龄化程度得到一定减轻,但无法改变人口迅速老龄化的总趋势.该政策的实施尽管显著提高了少儿抚养比,但并没有创造出新的"人口红利",因而该政策在一定时期内对经济发展水平产生一定的负面影响.
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| 关 键 词： | "全面二孩" 少儿抚养比 劳动年龄人口占比 老年抚养比 "Universal Two Children" Child Dependency Ratio Proportion of Working-age Population Old Depend-ency Ratio Economic Development |
"Universal Two Children", Demographic Structure Change and Long-term Economic Development:2017~2050 |
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| GU Hejun,CAO Yuxia,LI Qing."Universal Two Children", Demographic Structure Change and Long-term Economic Development:2017~2050[J].Collected Essays On Finance and Economics,2018(4):3-9. |
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| Authors: | GU Hejun CAO Yuxia LI Qing |
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| Abstract: | "Universal two children"policy,as an important step to adjust and improve the fertility policy, will have a profound impact on both the economy and the society of China.This paper analyzes the impact of"Universal two Children"policy on demographic structure change,the economic development level and speed.The results show that this policy will sig-nificantly improve the child dependency ratio,but the proportion of working-age population will not improve as a result.Be-sides,it will alleviate the degree of aging,but it can't change the trend of rapid aging.Since the policy improves the child de-pendency ratio,but does not create a new"demographic dividend",it does harm to the economic development level within a certain period. |
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