农民工跨城市二次流动与回流模式 ——基于最大似然估计方法的分析

本文采用上海财经大学"千村调查"抽样数据,基于最大似然估计方法,考察农民工跨城市二次流动和回流返乡的影响因素,以纠正样本的选择性偏误.研究结果发现,近六成的农民工发生二次流动,且表现"抱团流动"的典型特征,获取更高的收入和更好的工作待遇成为农民工跨城市二次流动的最主要原因;照顾老人孩子和结婚是农民工回流返乡的最主要原因.农村劳动力的城乡流动、 跨城市二次流动和回流返乡表现明显的差异,与城乡流动相反,女性、 年龄越大、 受教育程度较低的农民工更倾向于二次流动,而家庭负担较重、 外出务工期间无家人陪同的农民工更容易回流返乡.

Inter-city Migration and Reflow of Migrant Workers in China——Analysis Based on Maximum Likelihood Estimation

Using the data of 2013 "Thousand Villages Survey", this paper analyzes the influencing factors of inter-city migration and reflow of migrant workers .It is found that nearly 60％ of the migrant workers are inter-city migrant, and they have the typical characteristics of pushing flow .Gaining higher income and better working conditions are the main reasons for the inter-city migration of migrant workers , while taking care of the elderly and children , getting married and having children are the main reasons for the reflow of migrant workers .In addition, the migration between urban and rural areas , inter-city mi-gration and reflow show a significant difference .Those migrant workers who are female , older or with lower levels of education prefer inter-city migration to reflow , while those with heavier burden of family care , and without family members to accompany them during the period of migration are more likely to return home .