消费波动的福利效应差异与封闭经济约束

本文使用中国29个省份1985-2007年的省际城乡居民消费数据系统考察城乡居民水平与异质消费的波动性及其福利效应,并对结果进行解释。研究结果表明:省级城乡居民的水平消费具有明显的波动性,但在控制了全国层面城乡的总体消费波动之后,省级城乡居民的异质消费波动性倾向于减弱;城乡居民水平消费波动的福利效应倾向于大于城乡居民异质消费波动的福利效应;封闭经济约束是导致水平消费的波动性及福利效应倾向于大于异质消费的波动性及福利效应的重要原因。为切实提高城乡居民福利,除了通过增加城乡居民收入来提高居民消费增长率之外,还需要进一步对外开放来降低居民消费波动性。

Welfare Effect Difference of Consumption Volatility and Closed-economy Constraints

The paper uses Chinese provincial data of urban and rural consumption from 1985 to 2007 to analyze the welfare effect difference of province-level and province-idiosyncratic consumption volatility.The major findings are as follows: Province-level urban and rural consumption exhibit extremely obvious volatility rate,while province-idiosyncratic urban and rural consumption exhibit usually less volatility rate once the fluctuations of aggregate urban and rural consumption are controlled.The welfare effect of p...