财政政策的顺周期实施效应特征与基本成因

改革开放以来,为抵御外部风险、稳定经济增长,我国持续实施积极财政政策,政策设计愈发重视反周期相机调控理念.但政策的实施效果存在争议,不完全满足反周期特征,导致调控结果与初衷存在背离难题.为厘清我国财政政策效应的周期特征,本文引入多频谱分析,以极大似然小波分解(MODWT)剔除序列趋势成分的扩张效应干扰,利用带有时变参数的结构向量回归模型(TVP-SVAR)分析我国预算收支和经济波动的关系.结果显示,我国预算收支变化与经济周期趋同,财政政策的实施结果具有顺周期性.具体来看,我国经济增速变化一个单位将导致预算收支分别同方向变化0.7及 0.05个单位以上,预算收入变化一个单位将导致预算支出变化0.9个单位以上.本文还证明,预算收入的顺周期属性是导致支出与经济波动顺同的主要影响因素.

The Characteristics and Basic Reason of Procyclical Fiscal Policy

Since the reform and opening up, in order to resist external risks and maintain economic growth, China has continued to use proactive fiscal policies, and policy design has increasingly emphasized countercyclical discretionary choice concepts. However, the effect of the implementation of fiscal policy is controversial and does not fully satisfy the anti-cyclical characteristics, resulting in a deviation from controlled objective. In order to clarify the periodic characters of China's fiscal policy effect, this paper introduces multispectrum analysis, removes sequence trend components by maximum likelihood overlap wavelet decomposition (MODWT), avoiding expansion effect. This paper uses a structural vector regression model with time-varying parameters (TVP-SVAR) to analyze the relationship between both China's budget revenue and expenditure, and economic fluctuations. The results show that changes in China's budget revenue and expenditure are procyclical to business cycle. Specifically, one unit of change in China's economic growth rate will result in changes in the budget revenue and expenditure of 0. 7 and 0. 05 units or more in the same direction. A unit change in the budget revenue will result in a change in budget expenditure of 0. 9 units or more. This paper also proves that the procyclical budgetary income is the main reason for procyclical expenditure.