| 城市化与潜在增长率:基于长期视角的增长效应评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 巴曙松,杨现领.城市化与潜在增长率:基于长期视角的增长效应评估[J].财贸经济,2011(3):96-101,137. |
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| 作者姓名： | 巴曙松 杨现领 |
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| 作者单位： | 巴曙松,BA Shusong(国务院发展研究中心金融研究所,100036);杨现领,YANG Xianling(华中科技大学,100036) |
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| 摘 要： | 从单个国家不同阶段的纵向来观察,城市化与经济增长之间的相关性强弱程度存在显著差异;横向跨国对比来看,不同国家城市化率与经济增长之间的关系也不存在统一的范式,城市化既可能是经济增长的结果,也可能是经济增长的动力。中国未来城市化的速度将不可避免地放缓,人口结构也将逐步跨越老龄化的时间窗口,这会对潜在的经济增长能力产生负面冲击;同时,中国分散型的城市化抑制了创新、规模经济和专业分工带来的增长效应;中国城市化进程表现出了较强的"中心偏向","中心—外围"式的城市化层级结构扩大了区域差距。
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| 关 键 词： | 城市化 人口结构 潜在经济增长 公共政策 |
Urbanization and the Potential Growth Rate: An Assessment of Growth Effects Based on the Long-term Perspective |
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| BA Shusong,YANG Xianling.Urbanization and the Potential Growth Rate: An Assessment of Growth Effects Based on the Long-term Perspective[J].Finance & Trade Economics,2011(3):96-101,137. |
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| Authors: | BA Shusong YANG Xianling |
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| Institution: | BA Shusong(Development Research Center of the State Council of P.R.China,100036)YANG Xianling(Huazhong University of Science and Technology,100036) |
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| Abstract: | Urbanization can be a result of economic growth,it also could be the driving force of economic growth.In the future,the pace of urbanization in China will inevitably slow down,the population structure is changing gradually,this will potentially have a negative impact on economic growth capacity.At the same time,decentralized urbanization in China hampered innovation,economies of scale and specialization.Furthermore,the process of urbanization in China showed a strong center bias,which aggravates the regiona... |
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| Keywords: | Urbanization Population Structure Potential Growth Rate |
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