我国出口扩大与能源消耗的一项实证研究

改革开放以来,我国出口高速增长,能源消耗也大幅增加,高出口、高能耗成为我国外贸及经济增长的重要特征。本文采用投入产出分析方法,对2005年我国22个贸易产业部门的出口贸易与能源消耗进行了实证研究。结论是:2005年我国内涵能源净出口量为5.79亿吨标准煤,是内涵能源净出口大国。若保持过去30年17.19%的出口增速,按照2005年投入产出数值计算,到2030年我国净出口内涵能源将超出我国能源总产量的8倍,这显然是不可行的。作为人均能源稀缺的国家,我国必须转变出口模式,依据能耗强度高低对不同出口产业部门给予鼓励或限制,推动节能型出口产品结构调整,以实现经济的可持续发展。对此,本文提出了相应的政策建议。

An Empirical Research on China's Export Expansion and Energy Consumption

Since the reform and opening up,China's export has had a rapid growth fueled by export-oriented strategy. In the meanwhile,China's energy consumption has been increasing sharply. China's trade and economic development shows the feature of high export and high energy consumption. In this paper,energy embodied in China trade goods in 2005 is calculated quantitatively based on Input-Output analysis approach. The results show that the net export of embodied energy was 579 million tce (tons of coal equivalent),C...