社保基金投资股市对经济增长的影响

本文在一系列假定条件下分析了中央社保基金投资资本市场对经济增长和包括储蓄、收入分配、消费、价格等在内的宏观经济条件的影响.本文认为,总的来说中央社保基金投资包括股市在内的资本市场对经济增长的影响具有很大的不确定性,其影响主要取决于其他诸多相关因素,并在很大程度上取决于心理预期和政策工具的选择.换言之,在其他条件不变的情况下其影响是很有限的,或者说主要呈中性.

Centrally-Managed DC & DB Social Security Trust Funds' Investment in Equities Affecting Economic Growth

Under some of hypotheses and with the approach of normative analysis, this paper discusses what impacts the investment in equities of social security trust funds from central government might cause upon the growth of economies and upon other macroeconomic environments such as national savings, income redistribution, consumption and prices. It argues that in general speaking central social security trust funds' investments in financial markets especially in equities might bring many uncertainties for the economic growth, jointly depend on many other relevant factors, even much more on the psychological expectancy for consumption and instrumental policies choices from government. In other words, with other conditions unchanged their impacts are rather limited and neglected, or say neutral.