碳关税对中国工业品出口的影响——基于可计算一般均衡模型的评估

碳关税政策作为一项边界调节机制,其目的是弥补因二氧化碳减排对本国生产的碳密集型产品的国际竞争力所造成的损失。碳关税政策违背《联合国气候变化框架公约》(UNFCCC)的基本原则和WTO的国民待遇原则,但可能适用WTO/GATT的一般例外条款。本文在分析中国工业品出口的隐含碳排放量的基础上,采用动态可计算一般均衡模型测算了碳关税对中国工业生产、出口和就业的可能影响。本文模型的评估结果表明,每吨碳30美元或60美元的关税率可能使中国工业部门的总产量下降0.62%～1.22%,使工业品出口量分别下降3.53%和6.95%,同时使工业部门的就业岗位减少1.22%和2.39%,而且以上冲击可能在5～7年甚至更长时期内产生持续影响。尤其值得注意的是,通常被认为不属于能源密集型或碳密集型行业的机械制造业出口和就业可能面临较大冲击。针对碳关税政策可能对中国工业生产、出口、就业等各方面发生的较为严重的冲击,本文提出了几条缓解碳关税冲击的应对策略,并提出了针对碳关税政策的反制性策略。

The Impacts of Carbon-Motivated Border Tax Adjustment to China's Industrial Exports-A CGE Based Analysis

Carbon-motivated border tax adjustment is a unilateral international trade policy aiming at compensating the loss of competitiveness of carbon intensive products due to carbon dioxide abatement actions. It violates fundamental principles of the UNFCCC,and potentially conflict with the core WTO principle of non-discrimination,reflected in the GATT Articles I and III. Based on the analysis of embodied carbon emission of China's industrial exports,this paper evaluates the potential impacts of carbon duty to Ch...