中美双边工业品增加值贸易隐含碳福利核算与分配问题研究

现代贸易方式不仅导致贸易利益在全球价值链上进行分配,还带来了贸易隐含污染排放在全球贸易网络中的分布。两国之间的贸易利益分配除了表现为贸易经济福利的分配,还表现为贸易隐含碳福利的分配。本文将贸易增加值分解法结合MRIO模型对2000—2014年中美双边工业品贸易增加值所隐含的碳福利分配及影响机制展开深入分析。研究结果表明:(1)在中美双边工业品增加值贸易隐含碳福利分配中,碳福利逆差在中国,碳福利顺差在美国;(2)中美工业品贸易碳福利级差经历了“先扩大,后收窄”的过程,美国次贷危机之后双边碳福利不平衡状况重新呈现扩大趋势;(3)中国碳排放强度下降、价值链地位提升以及对美进口规模扩大都有助于改善碳福利逆差的局面,但美国对中国不断扩大的中间品和最终品需求以及双边复杂的技术关联结构仍是中国碳福利逆差的主导因素;(4)全球价值链的深化可能将导致对出口国加征关税会通过降低进口消费侧排放的方式恶化加征国的贸易隐含碳福利。本文研究的时间范围同时覆盖中国加入WTO以及美国次贷危机两个重要节点,这对于重新审视中美经贸关系新格局下双边贸易隐含碳福利分配构建了一个新的分析视角,为中美未来贸易谈判以及全球碳排放责任认定提供了一个新的解读方向。

Calculation and Distribution of Carbon Welfare Embodied in China-US Bilateral Industrial Trade in Value Added

Modern trade pattern not only reflects the GVC distribution of trade benefits,but also brings about pollutant emissions distribution embodied in trade value in the global trade network.Combining the method of GVA decomposition with MRIO model,this paper evaluates the carbon welfare in the China-US bilateral industrial trade from 2000 to 2014,and furthermore makes an in-depth analysis on the responsibility identification of bilateral trade carbon emissions,carbon welfare change mechanism and the influence of China-US trade friction.The results show that:China got the deficit of carbon welfare embodied in China-US bilateral industrial trade,while the United States got the surplus.The carbon welfare gap between China and the United States in industrial trade has first broadened and then narrowed down,and China's deficit in carbon welfare deteriorated after the Subprime Crisis.The declining carbon intensity,higher status on the value chain and expanding imports from the United States all contribute to the improvement of the carbon welfare deficit.But the United States'growing demand for intermediate and final goods from China and the complex technical structure of the bilateral relationship are still the main factors causing China's carbon welfare deficit.In the situation of unilateral tariff levied,the impact of carbon welfare on China is smaller than that on the United States.In the situation of mutual tariffs levied,tariffs imposition on exporting countries will worsen the trade carbon welfare of the importing countries by reducing the carbon emissions from the consumption side of imports.This provides a new analytical perspective for reappraising the carbon welfare distribution embodied in bilateral trade under the new China-US economic and trade relations,and a new interpretation direction for future bilateral trade negotiations and the determination of global carbon emission responsibility.