基于资本管制下的汇率预期与贸易收支的实证研究

本文基于我国资本管制的现状,将汇率预期变量引入贸易收支决定的模型中,对我国贸易收支的影响因素进行实证分析,发现人民币汇率预期与我国贸易收支相互影响,人民币升值预期促使贸易顺差扩大,而顺差扩大又进一步加剧升值预期,形成累积效应,因此,在当前金融危机在全球不断扩散,市场对人民币出现贬值预期的背景下,应采取积极的措施以防止投机资本通过贸易渠道撤离,从而避免对我国贸易收支和宏观经济稳定产生不良影响。

The Empirical Study of Exchange Rate Expectation and Trade Balance Based on the Capital Control

Based on the current situation of China s capital controls,this article introduces exchange rate expectation in the trade balance model and does the empirical study for China. The inclusions find that RMB exchange rate expectation and trade balance impact each other. RMB appreciation expectation expands the trade surplus,while the expanded surplus causes further appreciation and form a cumulative effect. And so,in the current financial crisis spreading around the world and the market s devaluation expectati...