分税制改革、地方政府支出与居民消费——来自我国东部地区的实证检验

政府支出的增加对居民消费会产生挤出效应,也会产生挤入效应。本文采用固定效应模型,基于1995—2009年我国东部地区的省级面板数据,实证研究了分税制下地方政府支出对居民消费的影响。结果表明:从整体而言,东部地区地方政府支出对居民消费具有显著的挤入效应。从地方政府支出的结构来看,东部地区民生支出对居民消费水平的提升作用最为显著,政府消费支出次之,政府投资支出的挤入效应最小。

The Tax Revenue Sharing System,Local Government Spending and Household Consumption: Empirical test from East China

The increase in government spending will crowd out consumption,and will also have to squeeze into it.In this paper,using provincial panel data for eastern china during 1995—2009,,this paper empirially investigates into the impact of local government spending on household consumption by using fixed effect model under the tax revenue sharing system.The study indicates that,Overall,local government expenditure of the eastern region has significant crowding-in effect on household consumption.From local government expenditure structure,the people’s livelihood spending of the eastern region enhancement the level of consumption expenditure is the most significant,followed by government consumption expenditure,the minimum is government investment spending crowding-in effect.