中国对“一带一路”沿线国家增加值出口贸易的环境成本研究

降低增加值出口贸易的环境成本是推进绿色“一带一路”建设的重要内容。本文使用增加值出口碳排放强度表征增加值出口贸易的环境成本，首先基于Eora 26数据库，测度了2000—2015年中国向“一带一路”沿线国家增加值出口的环境成本，然后使用结构分解法和回归分析识别出中国向“一带一路”沿线国家增加值出口碳排放强度的直接影响因素和内在影响因素。研究显示:中国向“一带一路”沿线国家增加值出口的碳排放强度总体呈下降的趋势，且碳排放强度存在国别差异与行业差异；中国向“一带一路”沿线国家增加值出口碳排放强度的下降主要是由直接碳排放系数的变动引起的；离岸外包程度、国际市场占有率、全球价值链分工地位、投入服务化程度的提高以及国内市场规模的扩大可以显著降低中国各行业向“一带一路”沿线国家增加值出口的碳排放强度。最后，本文提出推动重点行业的深度减排、推动企业进行离岸外包、推动制造业投入服务化转型和推动企业进行价值链升级等政策建议。

Research on the Environmental Costs of China’s Value-added Export Trade to Countries along the Belt and Road

Reducing the environmental cost of value-added export trade is an important part of promoting the green Belt and Road construction. This paper uses carbon emission intensity of value-added exports to characterize the environmental cost of value-added export trade. First, based on the EORA 26 database, it measures the environmental cost of China’s value-added exports to countries along the Belt and Road from 2000 to 2015. Then structural decomposition method and regression analysis are used to identify direct and intrinsic influencing factors that affecting the carbon emission intensity of China’s value-added exports to countries along the Belt and Road. The results show that the carbon emission intensity of China’s value-added exports to countries along the Belt and Road shows an overall downward trend, there are differences in the carbon emission intensity of China’s value-added exports to countries along the Belt and Road between countries and industries; The decrease in the carbon emission intensity of China’s value-added exports to countries along the Belt and Road is mainly caused by the change of the direct carbon emission coefficient; The improvement of the degree of offshore outsourcing, international market share, division position in global value chain, the degree of service input and the expansion of the domestic market scale can reduce the carbon emission intensity of value-added exports of Chinese industries to countries along the Belt and Road significantly. Finally this paper puts forward policy recommendations to promote deep emission reduction in key industries, promote enterprises to carry out offshore outsourcing, promote the transformation of manufacturing industry into service and promote the upgrading of enterprise value chain.