旅游产业与城乡融合耦合协调发展分析及预测

本文在构建旅游产业与城乡融合评价指标体系的基础上，利用熵值法、灰色关联模型及耦合协调度模型分析两者的耦合协调关系，并结合灰色预测模型（GM1, 1）对未来五年的耦合协调度进行预测。结果显示:2000—2018年新疆旅游产业与城乡融合综合发展水平不断提高；旅游产业各子系统对城乡融合的平均灰色关联系数在0.865～0.955之间，城乡融合各子系统对旅游产业的平均灰色关联系数在0.832～0.948之间；二者的耦合协调度呈小幅度波动上升趋势，其耦合类型均处在颉颃阶段，其协调等级从严重失调逐步发展到轻度失调；在未来五年内，新疆两大系统的耦合协调度总体上呈现小幅增长趋势，但其耦合协调等级仍处于轻度失调阶段。

Analysis and Prediction of Coupling and Coordinated Development between Tourism and Urban-Rural Integration

Based on constructing the evaluation index system of tourism and urban-rural integration, this paper takes entropy method, Grey correlation model and coupling coordination degree model to analyze the coupling coordination relationship between them, and uses Grey prediction model (GM1,1) to predict the coupling coordination degree in the next five years. The results show that the comprehensive development level of tourism and urban-rural integration in Xinjiang has been continuously improved in 2000—2018. The average Gray correlation coefficient of each subsystem of tourism to urban-rural integration is between 0.865~0.955, while the average Grey correlation coefficient of urban-rural integration subsystems to tourism is between 0.832 and 0.948. The coupling coordination degree of the two shows a small fluctuation and rising trend, and their coupling types are all in the final stage, and their coordination level gradually develops from serious imbalance to mild imbalance. In the next five years, the coupling coordination degree of the two systems in Xinjiang shows a slight increase in general, but its coupling coordination level is still in the stage of slight imbalance.