长江经济带能源碳排放脱钩效应及其驱动因素

能源碳排放脱钩是实现低碳经济发展的重要任务。本文以长江经济带九省二市为研究对象，通过构建Tapio脱钩弹性分析模型实证分析长江经济带能源碳排放与经济增长之间的脱钩效应，并在Kaya恒等式的基础上结合对数平均迪氏分解法（LMDI）对能源碳排放的内在脱钩机制进行分析。研究结果表明:2000—2017年，以六年为一个时段看，长江经济带经济增长与能源碳排放处于“弱脱钩—弱脱钩—强脱钩”状态；经济增长对能源碳排放具有显著的正向驱动作用，能源强度对节能减排具有重要贡献，而能源结构与人口规模对能源碳排放分别有较微弱的负效应与正效应。在此基础上，本文提出促进区域协调发展、建设低碳示范区等对策建议。

Decoupling Effect of Energy Carbon Emissions in the Yangtze River?Economic Belt and Its Driving Factors

Decoupling energy carbon emissions is an important task to achieve low-carbon economic development. Taking the nine provinces and two cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt as the research object, this paper first analyzes empirically the decoupling effect between energy carbon emissions and economic growth in the Yangtze River Economic Belt by constructing Tapio decoupling elastic analysis model, and then analyzes the inherent decoupling mechanism of energy carbon emissions on the basis of Kaya identity by combining logarithmic mean Dickinson's decomposition method (LMDI). The results show that the provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2000 to 2017 basically showed the status of “weak decoupling—weak decoupling—strong decoupling”. Economic growth has a significant positive driving effect on energy carbon emissions, and energy intensity plays an important role in energy conservation and emission reduction, while energy structure and population size have a weak negative effect and positive effect on energy carbon emissions. On this basis, the paper proposes policy recommendations such as regional coordinated development and construction of low-carbon demonstration zones.