江苏消费主体结构变动对经济增长的影响研究

从消费主体角度,消费可分为农村居民消费、城镇居民消费和政府消费三个部分。消费对经济增长的影响主要取决于上述三个消费变量对总产出的冲击效应。选择江苏为研究对象,对总产出、农村居民消费、城镇居民消费和政府消费四个变量建立VAR模型,进行脉冲响应函数分析,探究三个变量对总产出的冲击效应。结果显示:农村居民人均消费对人均产出有微弱的负向冲击效应,城镇居民人均消费对人均总产出的拉动作用较为明显,政府消费对于经济拉动作用具有短平快的特点,但是难以持久。因此,应从提高居民消费水平的角度去促进经济增长,而不是仅依靠投资来拉动经济增长,同时应压缩政府消费,将宝贵的财政资金用于完善社会保障制度和提高保障水平,并且继续不遗余力地提高城市化水平。

Research on Impact of Structure Change of Consumption Subjects in Jiangsu Province on Economic Growth

From the perspective of consumption subject, the consumption is divided into three parts including the consumption of rural residents, consumption of urban residents and government consumption. The influence of consumption on economic growth depends mainly on the shock effect of the three consumption variables on the total output. Taking Jiangsu province as the research object, through the establishment of VAR model of four variables of total output, consumption of rural residents, consumption of urban residents and government consumption, function analysis of impulse response is made and the shock effect of three variables on total output is also explored. The re- sults show that consumption per capita of rural residents has a weak negative shock effect on per capita output, tbe pulling effect of consumption per capita of urban residents on total output per capita is more obvious, pulling effect of government consumption on the economy has the characteristics of being short, even and fast but not long. Therefore, we should promote economic growth from the perspective of improving the consumption level of resi- dents, rather than spur economic growth simply relying on investment, at the same time we should compress govern- ment consumption, invest valuable fiscal funds in the improvement of the social security system and improve the level of protection, and continue to go all out to improve the level of urbanization.