中国对“一带一路”沿线国家高质量投资研究——规模、效率与潜力

投资规模、投资效率和投资潜力是高质量投资的核心内容,在推进"一带一路"倡仪中发挥着重要作用。本文从这三个角度出发,基于2011~2017年间中国对"一带一路"沿线57个国家的OFDI数据,构建随机前沿模型,分析中国对"一带一路"沿线国家高质量投资规模的影响因素,为提升中国对外投资效率和发掘投资潜力提供新的解决思路,也为中国与沿线国家间的产业合作明确方向。研究结果显示:就投资规模而言,"一带一路"沿线国家经济总量越大时,将显著吸引中国对该类东道国的OFDI,但中国与"一带一路"东道国距离以及东道国自身的经济自由度越高,反而会降低对中国OFDI的吸引力;就投资效率而言,中国对"一带一路"沿线国家顺梯度OFDI效率没有明显提升,但逆梯度OFDI效率有稳定上升;就投资潜力而言,中国需要挖掘对东亚、中亚、南亚以及东盟地区投资的新增长点和投资新契机,目前中国对独联体地区的投资相对薄弱,有待加强。

The Research on China’s High-Quality Investment in the Countries along the Belt and Road——Scale,Efficiency and Potential

Investment scale,investment efficiency and investment potential are the core contents of high-quality investment,and investment play an important role in the"Belt and Road"initiative.From the perspective of these three points,based on the China’s OFDI data of 57 countries along the"Belt and Road"from 2011 to 2017,this paper constructs a Stochastic Frontier Model,and the factors affecting China’s high-quality investment in the"Belt and Road"countries are analyzed,which provides new solutions for enhancing efficiency and potential of China’s foreign investment and a clear direction for industrial cooperation with countries along the line.The results show that in terms of investment scale,the larger a country’s economic aggregate,the more attractive it will be to China’s OFDI.However,the greater the distance between China and host countries and the higher the economic freedom of the host country itself,the attraction to China’s OFDI will be decreased.In terms of investment efficiency,the Up-gradient OFDI efficiency in the"Belt and Road"countries has not improved significantly,but the efficiency of Down-gradient OFDI has increased steadily.In terms of investment potential,China needs to explore investment opportunities in East Asia,Central Asia,South Asia and ASEAN.At present,China’s investment in the CIS region is relatively weak and needs to be strengthened.