公募基金绩效能力的实证分析——引入2013年最新“风波”事件

对于基金经理人,市场收益择时能力和波动择时能力是一个决定性的因素。随着公募基金越来越受关注,如何专业而又科学的对公募基金的绩效进行评价和衡量则成为很多投资者最为关注的问题。这篇文章将深入研究中国基金从2006年1月1日到2010年12月13日期间公募基金的市场择时能力和波动择时能力的联合效益,通过构建市场波动模型（Busse,1999）和联合效益模型（Chen和Liang,2006）来分析时序数据,并对基金的市场表现进行理论与现实的分析。

Analysis of the Consumption Changes of Rural Residents In Anhui Province

The consumption level of residents is influenced by various factors. According to the statistical data of Anhui province from 1995 to 2012, the consumption structure of rural residents is keeping on change with the continuous increase of their incomes, which shows in the following three aspects： the ratio of expenditure for housing, transport, communication and entertainment is rapidly rising; the ratio of consumption for existence is decreasing, while the ratio of consumption for development is increasing; Engel＇s Coefficient is de- creasing. Therefore, it is the key points for enhancing the consumption of rural residents in Anhui province at present or in near future that strengthening the housing construction investment in rural areas is to improve its housing consumption, raising the rural elementary education and developing cultural amusement products are to stimulate entertainment consumption, and enhancing the investment of rural infrastructure constructions is to extend their consumption for transport and communication.