我国小麦进口低贸易依存度的实证分析

我国的粮食生产居世界首位，由于其中作为重要粮食作物的小麦消费量巨大，每年都需要进口来平衡国内供需缺口。近年来我国小麦进口“贸易依存度”不断下降，已经进入低位。影响小麦进口“低贸易依存度”的原因有很多，本文试图分析各个可能的变量以及它们各自的影响程度，从而证明我国小麦进口贸易依存度低，并不存在“大国效应”。本文采用了回归分析的方法，并结合经济学原理对模型以及各变量做了经济意义方面的解释。最后结合国内外观点，对未来几年我国小麦进口贸易做了预测。

An Empirical Analysis of China's Weak Dependence on the Import Trade of Wheat

China supplies the largest amount of cereal in the world.Because the proportion of the consumption of wheat is great,we need to import wheat to meet demand.During these years,China's dependence on foreign trade of wheat importation is weaker and weaker.There are several factors,which we manage to find out in order to argue how much they can influent it.So that we argue that China's dependence on foreign trade of wheat importation is weak and there is no "power effect" in international trade of wheat between China and other countries.We try to explain the model and each variable by regression analysis and supply the meaning of them.We also provide prediction of China's wheat importation in the following years according to foreign and domestic perspectives at the end of this theme.