出口需求对中国经济增长的贡献：一个修正的核算框架

针对出口对经济增长贡献率的传统测算结果与出口对经济增长实证结论之间的矛盾和悖论,本文认为造成这一悖论的主要原因是传统测算方法在考量消费、投资和出口对GDP的贡献时混淆了进口在GDP总量核算和贡献率分解核算中的不同作用,违背了贡献率核算中的进口项在消费、投资和出口中的匹配分解原则,从而大大低估了出口对中国经济增长的真实贡献。本文提出了两类修正方法,内需吸收法和匹配估计法,并对不同方法的估计精度进行了评估。通过运用中国的统计资料,本文的测算结果认为出口是拉动我国经济增长的主要推动力量,对我国经济增长具有至关重要的作用。

Export Demand's Contribution to China's Economic Growth: A Revised Accounting Framework

For the inconsistency and paradox between the traditional accounting result of the contribution ratio of export to economic growth and the positive conclusion of the contribution made by export to economic growth,this paper considers that the main reason for this paradox is that,when the contribution ratio to GDP of consumption,investment and export is measured by traditional method,the different effects of import in the gross accounting of GDP and the decomposing calculation of contribution ratio is confounded,then,the principle of matching decomposition of import item in consumption,investment and export is disobeyed,so the real contribution of export to China's economic growth is greatly underestimated.This paper put forward two sorts of emendatory methods,namely domestic demand absorption method and matching estimation method,furthermore,the estimation precision of each method is evaluated.Making use of statistical material of China,the measure result of this paper takes export as the main driving force of the economic growth of our country,and thinks that export plays an important role in our country's economic growth.