中国对外直接投资发展阶段与趋势分析

近年来，中国的对外直接投资不断增长，备受关注。根据邓宁的投资发展周期理论，利用最新的经济统计数据，对中国经济发展与对外直接投资的关系进行实证研究，解释中国的净对外直接投资额在2011年下降的原因。此外，通过出口与投资相互促进的关系，比较中国对外直接投资额、出口额占全球比例的情况；分析对外直接投资占固定资本形成比例的情形；探讨对外直接投资对优化外汇储备的作用，综合得出中国对外直接投资将保持增长趋势的结论。

Analysis of Development Stage and Trend of China＇s Outward Foreign Direct Investment

In recent years, China＇s outward foreign direct investment which has attracted much attention is growing. According to Dunning＇s investment development cycle theory, The artical has carried on the empirical research about the relationship between China＇s economic development and foreign direct investment with the lares! economic statistics data, and explained the reason why China＇s net foreign direct investment fell in 2011. Moreove, through the relationship between exports and investment, it has compared the Chinese foreign direct investment with exports accounted for global scale; analyzed the situation which foreign direct investment ac- counted for the proportion of fixed capital formation; and explored the role of foreign direct investment on opti- mizing foreign exchange reserves. It concludes that China＇s foreign direct investment will keep growth trend.