长江上游经济带经济增长差异与趋同分析

以1997—2009年长江上游经济带各省份的人均GDP为研究对象,通过计算Theil系数值,结果显示长江上游经济带在1997—2009年间经济增长存在差异,但是却有缩小的趋势。分形理论分析的结果显示,长江上游经济带经济增长差异具有分形特征,而且经济增长差异在演变过程中具有明显的持续性的规律,即长江上游经济带经济发展差异将继续呈现收敛的趋势。运用面板数据的回归发现,对外开放水平、政府财政支出、工业化水平、人力资本水平是长江上游经济带经济增长条件趋同的影响因素。

Economic Growth Differences and Convergence Analysis of the Upper Yangtze River Economic Belt

Taking the per capita GDP from1997 to 2009 of the provinces in the upper Yangtze River economic belt as the research object,and by calculating Theil coefficient,the study shows that the economic growth inequality has existed in the upper Yangtze River economic belt over the years from 1997 to 2009;however,it seems that the inequality has the trend of reducing.After analyzing with the Fractal theory,the study shows that the economic growth inequality in the upper Yangtze River economic belt has presented the fractal characteristics also with the regularity of obvious sustainability in the evolution process,namely the economic growth inequality in the upper Yangtze River economic belt will continue to present the trend of convergence.By Using the regression of panel data,we found that the level of opening to the outside,the government Financial expenditure,the industrialized level and the human capital level are the factors of the conditional convergence of economic growth in the upper Yangtze River economic belt.