综合类公司财务危机预警模型实证研究

资本市场的需求致使财务危机预警研究一直是一个热点话题。以1998-2004年深沪两市首次被ST的综合类上市公司为研究对象，用同行业且资产规模相近的盈利公司作配对样本，选择32个财务指标对ST公司与盈利公司的T统计量和Z统计量进行分析，探求两者是否存在显著差异。运用Fisher二类线性判别分析和二元逻辑回归，分别建立起上市公司发生财务危机前的3年的预警模型且用回代判定进行预测，得出若干结论。

A Case Study of Financial Crisis Alerting Model for Comprehensive Corporations

Studies on financial crisis alerting has been a hot topic owing to the demand of the capital market. Setting two of the first batch of Chinese ST listed firms in 1998--2004 as studying objectives, the author chooses profit-making firms of the same trade with about the same assets as matching samples. To seek whether great distinction exists between ST companies and profit-making firms, the author selects 32 financial indexes to analyzes the T statistics and Z statistics of the tom panics.Applying Fisher linear discriminant analysis and Binary Logistic analysis, the author establishes alerting models for the ST firms three years before they had financial crises and makes financial fore casts for the two companies.