我国财政支出结构与居民消费异质性动态关系

通过构建随机动态一般均衡模型(DSGE),并进行数值模拟,分析了财政支出结构对居民消费的影响。总体来看,无论长、短期,财政支出结构对居民消费都是挤入效应。利用我国31个省市2007～2010年度频率数据进行的面板分位数回归分析表明,财政支出结构对居民消费整体上是挤入效应,但不同区域、不同消费人群对财政支出结构的反应显示出差异化特征。

The Idiosyncratic Dynamic Relationship of Fiscal Expenditure Structure of China and the Resident Consumption

This paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model(DSGE) and makes numerical simulations to describe the effect of financial expenditure structure on resident consumption.This paper finds that the effect of financial expenditure on resident consumption is squeezed into effect not only in short term but also in long term.This paper employs the annual frequency panel data from 2007 to 2010 of 31 provinces in China and uses quantile regression methods for panel data panel,and finds that there is a crowding-in-effects of fiscal expenditure on resident consumption on the whole.But the different consumer group of china’s different areas in response to fiscal expenditure is different.